Bill MacKenty

update from Poland

A Russian missile strike in Poland...

Welcome to the occasional update for the academic year 2022 - 2023.  I’ve lived and worked in Warsaw for almost thirteen years and these are my perspectives about current events in Poland. 

We learned yesterday (Tuesday) there was a Russian missile strike in Poland. The village is located less than 10 km from the Polish-Ukrainian border. It is inhabited by about 500 people, 2 people have died.

There is much we don't know but we know the missile was russian-made, and it exploded in Poland. 

According to Polish press, General Waldemar Skrzypczak stated:

It was probably hit by Ukrainian anti-aircraft weapons and misaligned, or it was misprogrammed and, as a result of various errors, went where it saw a different target. Or she got lost and flew until she ran out of fuel, the general estimates.

(almost all words in Polish have a gender associated with them, hence the word she)

To say the least, things are a bit tense in this area of the world. IF this is an attack, this would trigger article 5, which states:
 

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
 

This is essentially Poland asking for formal help from the alliance, and falls under a key NATO idea “an attack on one of us is an attack on all of us”. Many things to unpack here:

1.  Russia is losing the war Ukraine. badly. 
   
   1.  Russia's military has been pushed back to pre-February 24 borders, and the Ukrainian military has made stunning gains. If you are interested in non-political reading of the war, I cannot recommend understandingwar.com highly enough.
   2. Napoleon famously quipped:  Never interrupt your enemy whilst he is in the midst of making a mistake. Putin is making a doozy. 
       
2. …but there's still a war…
   1.  missile attacks continue, and just yesterday there were more attacks on Kiev, and Russia fired over 100 missiles.
   2. Following a pattern in recent weeks of lashing out far from the front after battlefield losses, Russia fired long range strikes at the capital Kiev, where air raid sirens rang out, two explosions were heard and columns of smoke rose into the sky. The mayor of Kiev said Russian missiles hit two residential buildings (ref).
       
3. Russia made an uncharacteristically rational decisions by retreating from Kherson
   1. Russian military action has been irrational, disorganized and remarkably inept.
   2. The manner in which the Russian military retreated from Kherson was more careful and competent than what they have done in the past
       
4. Since this conflict began weapons, supplies and help have been pouring into Ukraine from Poland
   1. but the missile hit a grain storage in a tiny village, nowhere near anything of strategic importance
   2. There are also tens of thousands of American (and NATO) troops / equipment / missile defense in Poland
       
5. Seems to me the last thing Russia wants if to trigger a war with NATO
   1. Considering their stunning failure in Ukraine, a war with NATO would be unimaginably stupid and result in a catastrophic defeat of the Russian military
       
6. Please understand: nothing unites the Polish people like an attack 
   1. In Poland, as a rule, there is bickering, complaining and division but when the need arises, the Poles unite at remarkable speed and in remarkable solidarity.
       

We simply pay attention, listen carefully, and get on with our lives as best we can.