Bill MacKenty

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Western Theater Timeline (June 1944 – November 1945)

Posted in Historical Simulation on 12 - October 2025 at 10:57 AM (2 days ago) 25 views.

I've been especially interested in the Western Theater during WW2, specifically the timeline after June 6 1944. With the help of chatGPT, I generated this timeline. I still need to validate this list of major events (and I might parallel other interesting events). But for now, this list is satisfying to understand the sequence of events from the invasion of Normandy to the fall of the Germany.

June 1944

July 1944

August 1944

September 1944

October 1944

November 1944

December 1944

January 1945

February 1945

March 1945

April 1945

May 1945


Computational History

Posted in Historical Simulation on 01 - September 2025 at 11:54 AM (one month ago) 15 views.

A practical framework for encoding historical systems as computable models by integrating noetic logic< (belief, perception, intention) with Boolean logic (facts, rules, states).


History as a System, Not a Story

Traditional historical study often centers on narrative: who did what, when, and why. Computational history reframes the past as a complex system—a dynamic network of agents (people, groups, nations), resources (food, technology, territory), and constraints (environment, ideology, communication).

Each element is expressed as data:

By encoding historical information into logical and mathematical forms, we can run simulations that explore how small changes in input conditions—a drought, an assassination, a religious reform—may lead to dramatically different outcomes.

Boolean Logic: The Skeleton of Historical Systems

Boolean logic supplies the formal structure on which these systems operate. At its core, it represents the simplest decision space: true/false, on/off, war/peace.

Illustrative rules:

With these rules we construct state machines—abstract models that change based on logical conditions. In simulation, thousands of transitions unfold over time, revealing patterns that mirror real processes: economic collapse, ideological contagion, or imperial expansion.

Noetic Logic: Modeling Human Thought and Belief

History is not made by systems alone; it is made by minds. Noetic logic (from Greek noēsis, “understanding”) formalizes mental states to describe how agents perceive truth, assign value, and act based on internal reasoning.

Belief-driven dynamics we can model include:

In short, a Boolean model constrains what is possible; a noetic model helps explain why actors choose among those possibilities.

Merging the Logical and the Noetic

The most powerful insight appears when we integrate both layers into a single computational framework: Boolean logic defines external mechanics; noetic logic defines internal cognition operating within them.

  1. Initialize environment: political borders, economic indicators, climate data.
  2. Define agents: rulers, factions, institutions—each with belief matrices and behavioral parameters.
  3. Iterate through time: apply Boolean rules to update the world; apply noetic rules to update beliefs.
  4. Observe emergence: revolutions, migrations, alliances, collapses—mirroring or diverging from known outcomes.
Note: The goal is not deterministic prediction but probabilistic insight—ranges of plausible trajectories given data and modeled psychology.

Predicting Without Pretending

Computational history cannot predict the future as prophecy. History’s complexity and contingency preclude absolute foresight. But it can illuminate trajectories, reveal feedback loops, and identify leverage points where decisions—individual or collective—produce outsized effects.

For education and research, simulations help to:

Toward a New Craft of Historical Inquiry

The aim is not to replace traditional scholarship but to augment it—equipping historians with tools to explore questions that text alone cannot answer. By fusing Boolean precision with noetic subtlety, we can build models that respect both the mechanics and the meaning of human events.

In doing so, we reclaim history not as static record, but as living computation—an ever-evolving simulation of mind, matter, and possibility.

Author’s note: This article outlines my working approach to computational history. If you’re interested in classroom-ready exercises, agent-based demos, or formal specifications for the noetic/Boolean layers, feel free to reach out.


The changing nature of conflict in an era of drones

Posted in Blogging Personal Historical Simulation on 27 - August 2024 at 10:31 AM (one year ago) 1403 views.

I am an amateur historian, and have found a thoughtful analysis entitled "UKRAINE AND THE PROBLEM OF
RESTORING MANEUVER IN CONTEMPORARY WAR". I have been quite curious how drones have been used to the east...

Here is a local copy of the analysis and here is the external link to Institute for the Study of War

The analysis begins with a comparison of the Spanish Civil War and WW2; that lessons from the first greatly informed the execution of the later. A major thesis is that "the challenge of restoring operational maneuver to war remains the central problem for both sides [Ukranian and Russian] in this conflict".

The problem with positional warfare is that it leads to stalemate and attrition; it often leads to a prolonged stalemate, where neither side can gain a decisive advantage. This can result in a war of attrition, where victory is determined by which side can sustain losses longer. Such warfare is costly in terms of human lives, resources, and morale.

There is so much more in this article, as a historian, I appreciate the parallels drawn between past conflicts (the section about the battle of the bulge was especially interesting) and this current one. I recommend the study of this analysis.